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Investment Outlook
for April 2008
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Mark Meyerowitz,Owner,
Meyerowitz Investment Management
Mr. Meyerowitz has been
investing since high school, in the 1970s.
After graduating from Brandeis University in 1977; Mark
built up his small family business into a large local
retailing company.
From the mid 1990s to early 2003, Mark was a broker with
Smith Barney and with Edward Jones; two of the largest
invest firms in the nation.
Mark and his family have lived in West Orange, NJ since
1987.
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What's next for the American Economy?
The eternal question in the investment world is simple:
what is going to happen next? Simple to ask, difficult to
answer. What we do know is that we just went through a
banking crisis, which led to the current environment of
banks being afraid to lend money, which slows business
borrowing down.
Much of the economic slowdown we are seeing is at the
expense of speculative ventures that should not have been
operating anyway. Only cheap and easy credit kept them
afloat. An example is Linens and Things, a home goods
retailer. Poorly run for decades, the company was taken
private several years ago, with no improved results. In
other words, operations that were based on high debt,
"leverage" are getting whacked, as they should.
We are currently in a strong bull market
for commodities. Oil is $118. a barrel. Gold is over $900.
an ounce. Corn, rice, and agricult ural products now command
top dollar. But there are signs that the commodity boom may
be reaching its peak. First, the price of gold sold off
sharply when it hit $1,000. an ounce. Secondly, the chart of
the oil exchange traded fund is sharply over-bought and due
for a reversal. The key to all this is the US dollar. If the
dollar starts rising, we could see the prices of oil, foods,
and other commodities come crashing down. Domestically, the
price of housing is not coming down fast enough. Overblown
prices keep buyers away. If we want to return to a healthy
economy, we need to have starter homes with prices and taxes
that our kids can afford to pay.
Presidential politics: in most
election years, the party trying to win back the presidency
tries to paint as bleak a picture of the economy as
possible. This year is no exception. Don't base your long
term investment outlook on your political bias.
Let's end on a happy note: America is an amazing country. With all the I
hate America sentiment floating around at home and abroad;
in spite of the greed of Wall Street, mortgage bankers, and
builders; in spite of a major industry crashing, and a major
commodity soaring, America is still rolling along.
--Mark
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"My goal is to manage your investments so that you have enough
money to lead the life that you want to lead. Your account with
my company is personalized blending different types of
investments in a way that is right for you. The growth and
safety of your account is our only focus!
-- Mark Meyerowitz |
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